Sebuah klaim besar baru saja dibuat oleh surat kabar terkemuka Taiwan, DigiTimes, yang menyatakan bahwa Intel telah menandatangani kontrak dengan TSMC untuk menggunakan fabrikasi 3nm mereka. Jika hal ini benar maka diperkirakan akan mengubah dinamika industri x86 sepenuhnya tahun depan. Perlu diingat, berita ini sepertinya hanya sekdar rumor karena masih belum ada konfirmasi lebih lanjut dari sumber kredibel mana pun untuk berita sebesar ini.
Sebuah laporan di DigiTimes mengklaim bahwa Intel berencana untuk melakukan outsourcing sebagian besar produk pada tahun 2022 ke fabrikasi 3nm milik TSMC (ini juga akan menjelaskan mengapa Pat Gelsinger menyatakan bahwa sebagian besar produk akan dibuat sendiri pada tahun 2023). Hal ini memungkinkan Intel untuk bersaing sekali lagi pada kekuatan mikroarsitektur mereka sendiri dan mencapai keseimbangan proses dengan desain milik AMD. Menurut DigiTimes, Intel telah menandatangani kontrak dengan TSMC untuk melakukan outsourcing produksi pada 2022 ketika Pat Gelsinger menjabat nantinya.
Fabrikasi 3nm dari TSMC kira-kira sebanding dengan 5nm milik Intel dan outsourcing ke TSMC akan sejalan dengan usaha meraih keunggulan mereka kembali. Mengingat Pat Gelsinger telah menjadi orang yang sangat mendukung keputusan untuk memproduksi sendiri, kata-katanya menunjukan seberapa yakin Intel akan menjadi raja kembali di tahun 2023. Pat Gelsinger juga telah memperjelas bahwa dia sama sekali tidak berniat memutarbalikkan fabrikasi Intel. Kontrak dengan TSMC ini jika digabungkan dengan niat Pat untuk memperbaiki manufaktur internal Intel adalah case scenario terbaik yang mungkin diharapkan oleh investor. Kerja sama dengan TSMC akan memungkinkan mereka untuk memanfaatkan sepenuhnya desain arsitektural mereka tanpa mengorbankan hal lain.
Baca juga: Intel Rilis VGA Diskrit DG1 Xe dengan 10nm SuperFin
Berikut adalah translate dari berita dari Digitimes yang dikerjakan oleh RetiredEngineer® @chiakokhua :
Intel is set to become TSMC’s second largest customer, next to Apple. The cooperation between the two will continue through the 2nm generation. Intel would not comment on market rumors. However, a few days ago, Pat Gelsinger, who is about to take over as Intel’s CEO, gave a rather vague statement about Intel’s outsourcing plans, saying only that: “the majority of 2023 products will be manufactured internally, but the proportion of outsourcing will still increase.”
This response is somewhat different from the market’s expectation that a large order will be released, leaving outsiders confused as to where TSMC’s confidence comes from. With regards to this, sources from the semiconductor industry claim that Intel had already signed a new outsourcing contract with TSMC in 2020. The largest order is for CPUs that will use TSMC’s 3nm process slated to enter mass production in the second half of 2022. Intel’s technology manufacturing team has already visited Southern Taiwan Science Park several times in the past 2 years to understand the progress. Barring the unforeseen, Intel will adopt a dual-track manufacturing strategy. High volume production for new, core products will be handled by TSMC with Intel will also simultaneously produce them internally, but at a smaller proportion.
For Intel, this allows them to focus on R&D to advance process technology and reduce mass production risks. The crisis of shortages and process delays will be fully resolved by then. For TSMC, 3nm has already secured numerous customer commitments even before entering mass production. Besides Apple’s core orders, Intel’s large orders are also in the pocket. Plus, almost all of the orders for advanced manufacturing processes from AMD, Mediatek and other major chip companies, as second and third wave mass production customers. Coinciding with the arrival of the 5G and AI era, order visibility is “cloudless”. TSMC is of course super optimistic about the next 5 years.
TSMC has already begun initial site preparation and cooperation with Apple in technology research and development for 2nm, and has also secured Intel’s commitment for continued cooperation; its confidence is well-founded. TSMC would not respond to customer and order-related queries. It is worth noting that TSMC is ASML’s largest customer for EUV lithography equipment. Cumulative purchases are estimated to exceed 30 units by the end of 2020. The 5/3nm production base in Southern Taiwan Science Park alone currently has more than 20 units. In 2021, purchases will be further expanded, with an estimated 18-20 units. Cumulatively, that is roughly the sum total of Intel and Samsung’s purchases combined.
Although Intel has established an outsourcing plan, it is understood that its own research and development for advanced EUV processes has not slowed down. In the past six months, it has continued to purchase EUV-related equipment according to previously established plans. Intel’s direction to conduct its own research and development and manufacturing [aka IDM] remains unchanged. The purpose of outsourcing large orders to TSMC is to focus on intensifying R&D and reduce mass production risk. Recent rumors about spinning off fabs are not in Intel’s plan.
